PAS is stronger without Pakatan

(ODS: The original title that came into my mind is “Why UMNO look worse from day to day”, but since there are some value that UMNO can learn from PAS, I choose this title instead. Or perhaps, readers can treat this as another type of Devil’s Advocate done by JMD)

The drama in Perak has yet to find its conclusion. Pakatan will try its best to get in power once again, through court summons. Kind of tickling me a little bit considering Sultan Perak himself is familiar with such prosiding. Although Tuan Guru Nik Aziz said himself that BN’s Perak government is ‘haram’, in my opinion, let us just watch and see how our politicians perform on stage and reveal their true colors. Shall we?

However, I would like us to consider the strenghts of one party that caught my attention in this Perak issue – PAS.

I know, each political party has good and bad moments and so do PAS. For years, they have been “kafir”ing UMNO, such petty arguments including name calling tactics (“Mahazalim”, “Mahafiraun” etc) and the “mencarut” issue that leads to small margin of wins against BN in other states besides Kelantan. For once, they got Terengganu, thanks to DSAI’s issue which lead to reduce of trust towards BN.

However, I noticed a signifiant changes since 2004 General Election. PAS no longer argues like before. Most of them seemed more in professional and as YB should act for rakyat, while in the same time, technical issues and problems arises within UMNO. More advantages were gained by the act of UMNO members themselves by fighting like kids, obviously trying to gain power and money. It has become more obvious when issues related to ambiguous actions which raised rakyat’s eyebrowse. Corruption issues starts become more obvious in BN, while PAS with their professional members (professional in words of professional workers – executives, doctors, accountants etc,; not professional manipulators or Tingkat 4 PAS) gained more trust from rakyat. Were they?

For me somehow it’s true. The 12th General Election showed how PAS faired compared to BN parties, PKR and DAP. I know that with the cooperation of these 3 parties, 5 states were taken over by PR. My point is this, between these 3, I for see PAS is way stronger, the anchorman for Pakatan, but I don’t see PAS is dominant in this coalition.

My analysis is based on GE12 result provided in Suruhanjaya PilihanRaya and counter check in Berita Harian.

First section, let us see how these 3 PR parties fair in DUN elections. PR won 196 DUN seats, compared to BN with 307 seats.

Let us zoom into the fort knox of PAS. Clearly, out of 45 DUN seats in Kelantan, 38 won by PAS, 1 by PR. DAP? None. The majority won by PR is as low as 323 votes (P.28 – Pasir Puteh) and as large as 6112 votes (P.21 – Kota Bharu).  Out of 5 seats contended by PKR, only one managed to win for PR with majority of 1,000 votes (P.31 – Kuala Krai). Other PKR candidates in Kelantan lose, ranging between majority of 100 votes to 2,833 votes.

Second state – Penang, fort for DAP. Out of 40 seats, PR won 29 seats, consisted 19 wins by DAP,  9 by PKR and 1 by PAS. Majority won by PR in this state ranging between 611 votes (P.52 – Bayan Baru) and 9,201 votes (P.43 – Bagan). Seems PAS in Penang shared the same fate with PKR in Kelantan, whereby they contended 5 seats but only to manage win 1 with the only win casted majority of 5,433 votes (P.44 – Permatang Pauh).

Third state – Selangor. Out of 56 seats, PR champions 36 seats – 15 by PKR, 13 DAP and 8 PAS. The range of majority win would be 190 votes (P.93 – Sungai Besar) to 10,203 votes (P.111 – Kota Raja). For this state, I consider PKR and DAP championing, but PAS also gave a good fight.

Now, the fourth state, which currently in soap drama of 2009 – Perak. 59 seats were up for grab and PR grabbed 31 seats – 8 seats for PAS,  18 seats for DAP and 7 seats sat by PKR. Majority votes casted range between 72 (P.61 – Padang Rengas) and 8,529 (P.74 – Lumut). It is crystal clear that DAP shone over PKR and PAS in Perak. However, since the Perak’s constitution said that MB to be from malay or bumiputera, PAS was given the advantage of being the head of state government.

The fifth state, which I consider the most quiet after Kelantan – Kedah with 36 DUN seats. Out of these 36, PAS won 14, 1 for DAP and 4 seats won by PKR. Bebas won 1 seat. The majority won by PR in this state ranges between 79 (P.14 – Merbok) and 10,323 (P.17 – Padang Serai).

With the 5 states that have been taken over by PR, seems that DAP is the shooting star. However, overall result for DUN showed that PAS won 83 seats, DAP with 73 seats and PKR with 40 seats. GE12 resulted 2 states under the control of PAS, 1 state with DAP, 1 state for PKR, and one state majority by DAP chaired by PAS.

Scond section – Parliament. GE12 showed that DAP won 28 seats, PKR 31 seats and PAS 21 seats.

Mixed results on DUN and Parliament. PAS shown good quality in DUN and add up more one more strenght with winning the KT by-election last month, which makes it PAS won 84 DUN seats. Unfortunate for DAP to lose 1 seat because one member decided to be neutral, and PKR lose 2 who wanted to be neutral too. By all means, currently PAS hold 84 DUN seats and control 2 states, DAP has 72 DUN states with 1 state in hand, while PKR with 38 DUN seats with 1 state controlled. PAS on the other hand has the least for Parliament seats. Maybe that’s why, for any PR decision, one must discuss with PKR and DAP.

But why must PAS need to? Because they are one of the member of coalition? If such effort in carrying out idea of Islamic country, I see this contradicted with DAP’s Malaysian Malaysia and PKR’s de facto to be Prime Minister.

Another point is this – PAS controlled 2 states without too much issue. Kelantan and Kedah is having quiet and peaceful life under their rule. No big issues so far. But Selangor and Penang, issues and problems being highlighted. Although Perak was headed by PAS, but majority was DAP, which Datuk Seri Nizar’s appointment was nearly being boycotted by DAP. Good coalition for PAS? I don’t think so. Considering in the event PR take over the Parliament, I for one not confident that PAS will be a major player in deciding what’s the best for the nation.

My next point will be the issues on each PR parties. DAP has their own issues in Penang, road signs etc and one ADUN in Perak already jump the ship. PKR? Main issue would be the leader himself – DSAI on the sodom issue. Others? The previous PKR DUNs (now “Bebas” DUN) with sex bribe issues and the pig issue in Selangor. PAS? Hardly, except for Tuan Guru Nik Aziz’s son-in-law appointed as CEO PMBK. Issue on Hudud? Strenght for PAS actually, but an issue that made other PR members to be wary on PAS ideology. PAS even had a good win in KT by-election after the issue being highlighted.

I know, being part of coalition is being able to make the team successful and be able to forge good team work. All elections that PR involved, they work a a team, except for one that I notice that one DUN was a contest between BN, PKR and DAP during GE12. I wonder..teamwork? In KT, DAP and PKR did show up, but in my point of view, PAS played more role. Their own strenght was shown during nomination day itself. Green wave colored KT. Hardly to find light blue-white-red or white-red colour.

The next point that I would like to stress is PAS supporters behaviour towards any of their leaders (which I want the BN, especially UMNO supporters to take seriously). Although it is heard on Erdogan and non-Erdogan within PAS camp, I can hardly find one blog, one posting, one article that criticize or humiliate any of PAS leader to the stage of revealing their worse moments. None, zilch, nada, ilek. I challenge any of BN supporter to find one that clearly criticize or humiliate one of their leaders so badly.

Another point will be the personal issues of the political leaders of PAS, especially on the heavyweights of each party, be it BN or PR. Since PAS supporter habit of not humiliate their leader, their leader do look good. Of course, I do agree some speech by some personnel do have bad languages embeded, which is not good and I do not agree with such act. Hwoever, I respect PAS ADUNs for holding their fort and not jumping out of their ship. And oh yeah, although Dato Nasa rejoined UMNO, he has been considered as a jumper (huh?)

BN? UMNO? Besides the media coverage, the tendency of humiliating another leader is getting higher each time there will be voting for such seats in BN, especially UMNO. With this coming March, one can find easy soft target of each candidate competing for any position, be it from inside, or outside. Try to find at least 5. I know you can do it!

Ondastreet’s take – PAS is stronger without PR, controlling 2 states with the least issue among state controlled by Pakatan; and do look good with weakening UMNO due to the act by UMNO members themselves.

How about your take?


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