22 years of bull?


It has become my concern when our dear blogger, Mr Wenger J Khairy keep on harping issues on Per Capita, trying to show Malaysia is well below some countries such as Bostwana and Gabon. The argument can be read here, entitled “22 years of bullshit”. He argued that even though the said countries are without mega projects, their per capita are better than ours. Just a note though, this argument is similarly what happened during debate between DSAI and Dato Ahmad Shabery Chik way back months ago, whereby Shabery gave us comparison of oil between Malaysia and some African countries. Well, I’m analyzing by way of his argument. So, to Gabonese and Batswana, I’m sorry.

 

Well, since he obtained it from IMF (ODS Note: at first I put as “(as he claimed)”, but thinking of which, I did realize it give a negative impact on impressions in regards of  his source of info, I remove the (“as he claimed”) and apologized to him) , I’ve asked him to provide such info on other areas, which I believe, “per capita” alone does not indicate the absoluteness of strength of a country. Economic strength of a country also can be determined by other factors, be it financial and non-financial factor. This includes poverty rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate, etc. As a full time speculator, he should know this. I have asked him to provide, yet, he can’t. So, since I’m not a beggar, I’ll do it on my own.

 

Kindly note that this article is nothing to do with the “war” between him and Doc Sid and Mr Singh. This issue is more towards satisfying me in search of truth on Malaysia’s economic strength from a normal Malaysian based on searches from reliable source – World Bank, United Nation and CIA (CIA? Wow!). Since WJK is using IMF, I believe, WB, UN and CIA also provides credible info. (ODS Note : CIA on the general issues, not the anti-terrorist issues or any security issues)

 

In regards with data obtained from World Bank, readers can obtain the info for each country at  World Bank’s website here.  The info covers year 2000, 2005, 2006 and 2007. For such, although data for 2003 (in year which TDM resigns) is not available, I assume the info would not fluctuate too much, or else it would be significant in yesteryears media reporting and we would had suffered badly.

 

From the info available, I see that our inflation rate is way lower than those two countries as taken by example by WJK. Why I take inflation rate as one of important facts to look at. It is due to the fact that inflation is a rise in the general level of prices of goods and services in an economy over a period of time. In year 2000, the inflation rate was 4.8% while Bostwana – 12.0% and Gabon – 28.1%. Interesting indeed. According to theodora , in 2003, we were still lower than them. If these analysis to be taken into account, somehow, I beg to differ.

 

Now, let us look unemployment rate according to United Nations, Bostwana shows a remarkable 24% of unemployment rate (as at 2003!). As for Gabon, the latest data was in 1993, for 18% with a footnote indicating the info was for age 10 years old and above. Malaysia? 4% of unemployment rate as reported in 2004.  To those who have query on why I relate unemployment rate to economics strength, Valentino Piana describes as “Economic losses from unemployment are large, since they relate to all goods and services that could be produced by the unemployed, to income losses for the unemployed household, to consumption and employment losses caused by reduced demand of the latter, to a wide range of social pathologies and health diseases”. So, in other words, it is also a determining factor. Again, I beg to differ.

 

I wish I can continue to make some more comparisons, but I feel it would show how bad the conclusion has been made by WJK. He accused TDM as bullshitting us, whereby TDM has done his best for the nation. He is not perfect, but at least he has done a good job.

 

Considering the countries taken by example in WJK’s argument, please find the background of the countries mentioned here and here. He has taken not quite good examples as comparison to Malaysia. Socially, Bostwana has the second highest rate in the world for AIDS and Gabon – In 1997, an IMF mission to Gabon criticized the government for overspending on off-budget items, overborrowing from the central bank, and slipping on its schedule for privatization and administrative reform. With all due respect, do you want Malaysia to improve in Per Capita and having these? I will certainly not.

 

In regards with foreign exchange issue mentioned by WJK, I wonder how did he held TDM as responsible for devaluation of RM. It is not his fault. In late 90’s crisis, not only RM was badly affected, but also most of this region’s currency. A speculator should know this. We have had a tough time to survive, but by Malaysian government decision to peg at RM3.80 per USD1, it saved lots of business.

 

In regards to privatisation, it is an idea, and should one to follow or not, it’s up to the person in charge. Any idea in this world can be considered as two edge knife, which, in the event of wrong implementation (be it time, condition, situation and technique), it can bring harm.

 

I know, this whole argument or “war” is due to campaign for DM and KJ. Both have their own credibilty and ability, but please, be in a healthy campaign, not accusing others and the people around the subject. This is more like “menang jadi arang, kalah jadi abu”. Most politicians in this country talks about Obama, but does anyone emulate it in positive way? Have anyone do it in way forward?

 

If we were 22 years in bull, at least I can say that we were not in this situation whereby not just BN in weak state, also PR in ‘rojak’ state during TDM tenureship. BN have never been in much worse condition whereby it can be attacked inside out. With latest KJ’s remark on hudud, I believe, we are going to have interesting few weeks ahead. Serious!

Money, Money, Money, Calculator?
Money, Money, Money, Calculator?

Words on the street – We are in political harewire?

 

9 thoughts on “22 years of bull?

  1. And I did obtain the data from the IMF and provided the link, but perhaps that was too much for you to admit.

    All I did was to jolt peoples sense of complacency. And unemployment here is low because of the income and substitution effect. Wages are so low, and cost of living so high that it is imperative for people to get a job at whatever cost.

    So we are better than Botswana?
    Thats great!

    ODS: In some terms, we do. Only that, I’m not able to find reliable source for 2003 in poverty. If you want the latest 2008, you can view it at http://www.photius.com/rankings/economy/population_below_poverty_line_2008_0.html which shows Bostwana’s rate 30.30%, and Malaysia 5.10%. Still better, ain’t it?

    I’m not rejecting the whole idea of Per Capita of yours, but at least, show us other comparisons. That’s all I am asking. You have better access than me, so, I’m hoping you can enlighten your readers on your argument with strong points and stats of yours.

    You mentioned in your blog that you are a speculator, and as speculator, I know you do not make decisions and analysis on just one factor. A good speculator will use some variables in making assessments. Right?

  2. My larger point which was framed in todays posting was that long term economic propserity is only gurranteed if a country has a corrupt free executive, a firm and just criminal justice system and a competitive education system.

    As i mentioned in my initial comment, mine was to provoke a reaction into the conventional thinking that we were somehow leaders in the world. And that somehow, the policies instituted i.e. privatisation and Mahatirism had created a utopian environment unmatched elsewhere in the world. And the larger notion that a return to Mahatirism would somehow allow Malaysia to leap forward.

    Truth be told I too was sold on this lie until I began to do my checking. The sum total of this divergence of opinion can be surmised below

    Is corruption institutionalised? Who did it? How do countries with a lower corruption rank compare with Malaysia on a standardized basis

    ODS: Thank you Mr WJK for active discussion.

    I would say, it will be a dream come true if government (and non-government) are free from corruption or any social ills. However, due to where we are now, reducing it should be a priority. This is where, in our country’s case, Pak Lah has promised to fight against corruption, but somehow, various events going the other way.

    I read your articles whereby you argued on some figures, but I do read some remarks on the other side. If Pak Lah vowed to fight against corruption, such incident even as ECM Libra would not happened. You know why? Because he as head of the family has vowed to the world to fight corruption.

    This is one of things that the people are mad at. Although it does not directly links Pak Lah to it, it linked to Khairy. Pak Lah kata kita lawan corruption, Khairy buat hal dia. Khairy menantu yang durhaka kah? People would and have asked, who is Khairy. From where did he get his funds? If isn’t from his own effort, must be somewhere else. That has raised such questions and looked as contradicted with Pak Lah’s vows.

    Moreover, during TDM’s time, his children not involved with politics directly, only in business. But this young gun – KJ, to greedy to chase both politics and business. This has yet raised some more issues. Certainly, it is hard to make business decisions when intimidated by KJ’s position in politics.

    Fighting corruption? By controlling both politics and business causes more chances in corruption. Right?

  3. salam ODS,

    wenger afraid of the return of mahathirism will send abdullah and his families (including KJ) to sg.buloh.

    Allegedly for corruption cases happened between 2004-2008.

    thats why i said – “bye KJ, hello mukhriz”

    ODS: I would say, it’s hard to agree or disagree. Although it seems corruption issues been highly highlighted during Pak Lah’s time, I do not know whether during TDM’s time will come. The like of Sukj labelling him as “Bapa Rasuah” is highly “suicidable” but who knows, someone may bring up to the court. Oh yeah, on the other hand, if really TDM is Bapa Rasuah, kindly report to ACA. TDM is no longer in governent, so I believe it is easier now (Likewise happened to Thaksin for example).

    On second note, I prefer the Mahathirism is not really about TDM. Is more like a call for Malays and Malaysian to prove we can be the best, we can excel, but only through his tenureship, noted in a hardway. Lebih kurang macam kena ketuk baru jalan. Macam tukul dengan paku. If we had no effort to manufacture our own car, we will have no national car. If we had no effort in having KLIA, Subang Airport will still our best airport. If we have no Sepang F1, we will be only entertained with Motor GP at Batu 3 or on da street by Mat Rempits. If we don’t have komuters, Star LRT or Monorail, I believe traffic jam will be worse than ever in KL. If we don’t have PLUS highways, we will still use old roads during festive seasons to go back to kampung, and cause heavy traffic.

    Well, again, to who accuse TDM as Bapa Rasuah, please lodge police and ACA report. Please, I insist!

  4. hi ODS,
    i’ve followed your trails of interesting comments from JMD and i was directed to this blog from WJK.
    Bravo for your counter analysis.

    You shouldn’t bother too much about the blogger named SUKJ. I’ve read the content of his blog and all the insults he made towards TDM which were blind speculative (e.g. TDM was behind IJN’s attempt for privatization before TDM posted his thoughts about the issue. how embarrassing for the guy.) and lack the substance of intelligence that people like you and Dr Sid may i add, have. He’s not within your league. Brush away the germ and continue to focus on more interesting stuff like the arguments raised by WJK.

    ODS: Merci béacoup River. You too have given such brilliant comments in JMD’s blog.

    I’m just trying to be reasonable in such issues. When some issues info, I’ll analyze it before accepting it, not blindly accepting it. In this case, WJK has provided stats on per capita, and perhaps you have noticed that I asked other info for the readers to evaluate. That’s all.

    On the Sukj’s matter, well, I rest assured that we may get some more issues from him. I kind of getting to believe what other bloggers say about these guys. They tend to argue in ‘unstable’ way( I do not know the suitable word to best describe right now) whenever being ‘countered attack’. As for WJK, I still believe he’s not 100% KJ’s supporter. Only that, he is yet to balanced out his article on pro-KJ and anti-KJ. My understanding is based on this article – http://padedoh.wordpress.com/2008/12/01/referee-blow-the-whistle-now/

    Again, thank you for dropping by.🙂

  5. Salam ODS,

    How reliable is the per capita income? I don’t mean to again confront Mr Wenger as I’ve done enough. An example, last two years the income of rubber tapper in average was about RM 4000 per month. No bull coz my family owns a few acres. During those time the rubber price went up above RM 5 per kilo. So there was a spike in income of kampung folks.

    Could the kampung folks then thank to the current government for the tremendous improvement in income. Nope, it was driven by world market, our rubber was exported to China.

    Now as the world economy is nearly freezing, everything goes cold. No order of rubber from China until Feb next year. Rubber price went nose-diving, and a couple of weeks ago it hit the lowest bottom, only RM 0.60 per kg. The income of kampung folks suddenly dropped. Was goverment responsible? Nope.

    Gotta to admit I don’t read economy. But a simple observation make you analyse as well.

    Wassalam.

    p/s I once learnt the economic plan proposed by Ku Li from my late father during the year of Ku Li – Mahathir showdown, 1987. Wenger was right, Ku Li generally did not agree with over spending. He wanted to create economic activities which were sustainable, dynamic and progressive like what he achieved with Petronas, Pernas and the forgotten Bank Bumi, a continuation of Tun Razak’s legacy. But Ku Li lost in 1987, so there goes his mission and his economic plan.

    ODS: Salam mr Singh,
    Per Capita is one but NOT ABSOLUTE measure. There are ways, variables and other factors to consider, as mentioned in this article – financial and non-financial factor. That is why I asked him to provide other variables for our understanding on his argument.

    Perhaps on your scenario based question given can be answered by Mr WJK. I can’t give one as my opinion will be biased (as I mentioned that one measure is not absolute) and my opinion will certainly prove your point.

    Mr WJK, please?🙂

You are part of people on the street. My opinion might not as good as yours. Come, please share your thoughts with us!!!

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s